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Events Likelihood Quantity Conjunction Fallacy Occur Separately Overlap

This flashcard explains the conjunction fallacy, where people incorrectly believe that the probability of two events co-occurring is higher than the probability of either individual event occurring.

Fallacy: congiunzione fallace Definizione ed esempi: Quando due eventi possono verificarsi separatamente o insieme, la congiunzione, dove si sovrappongono, non può essere più probabile della probabilità di uno dei due eventi individuali. Tuttavia, le persone dimenticano questo e attribuiscono una maggiore probabilità agli eventi combinati, associando erroneamente la quantità di eventi alla quantità di probabilità.

Fallacy conjunction fallacy
Definition and Examples When two events can occur separately or together, the conjunction, where they overlap, cannot be more likely than the likelihood of either of the two individual events. However, people forget this and ascribe a higher likelihood to combination events, erroneously associating quantity of events with quantity of probability.

Tags: fallacies

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