| Fallacy | appeal to possibility (eg Murphy's Law) |
|---|---|
| Definition and Examples | Description: When a conclusion is assumed not because it is probably true, but because it is possible that it is true, no matter how improbable. Logical Form: X is possible. Therefore, X is true. Example #1: Brittany: I haven’t applied to any other schools besides Harvard. Casey: You think that is a good idea? After all, you only have a 2.0 GPA, your SAT scores were pretty bad, and frankly, most people think you are not playing with a full deck. Brittany: Are you telling me that it is impossible for me to get in? Casey: Not *impossible*, but... Brittany: Then shut your trap. Explanation: Yes, it is possible that Harvard will accept Brittany to fill some sympathy quota, or perhaps someone at admissions will mix Brittany up with “Britney”, the 16-year-old Asian with the 4.0 average who also discovered a vaccine for a rare flu in her spare time, but because Brittany is appealing to possibility, she is committing this fallacy. Example #2: Dave: Did you know that Jesus was gay? Tim: And why do you say that? Dave: You have to admit, it is possible! Tim: So is the fact that you are a moron. Explanation: We cannot assume Jesus was gay based on the possibility alone. This also includes the argument from ignorance fallacy -- concluding a possibility based on missing information (an outright statement that Jesus was a heterosexual). Exception: When something is argued to beimpossible, arguing that it is possible, no matter howimprobable, is perfectly acceptable. Tip: Catch yourself every time you are about to use the word “impossible”. Yes, there are many things that are logically and physically impossible, and it is a valid concept and word, but so often we use that word when we really mean “improbable”. Confusing the impossible with the improbable or unlikely, could, in many cases, destroy the possibility of great success Here is why I think my date never showed up: her father had a heart-attack and she had to rush him to the hospital. In her state of panic, she forgot her cell phone and while at the hospital she was too concerned about her dad to worry about standing me up. Explanation: While possible, it is not probable. It is much more probable that his date just forgot or has purposely stood him up. People tend to believe in least probable hypotheses out of desire, emotion, or faith -- not out of reason. Example #2: Creationists have written volumes of books explaining how, given some divine intervention, a few broken natural laws, and accepting the inconsistency of nature, it could be possible that the universe is only 6000 years old. Accepting these theories would require the abandonment or radical reformation of virtually every science we have, as well us a new understanding of the term, “fact”. So either all of that is true, or, the Biblical creation story, like hundreds of others in cultures all around the world, are simply mythology. Explanation: Given the incomprehensible number and severity of the assumptions that would need to be made for creationism to be true, the explanation that the creation story is mythology, by far, is the most economical explanation. Exception: Anything is possible, Occam’s Razor is all about probabilities. also known as: appeal to ignorance, absence of evidence, argument from personal astonishment, argument from Incredulity) Description: The assumption of a conclusion or fact based primarily on lack of evidence to the contrary. Usually best described by, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Logical Form: X is true because you cannot prove that X is false. X is false because you cannot prove that X is true. Example #1: Although we have proven that the moon is not made of spare ribs, we have not proven that its core cannot be filled with them; therefore, the moon’s core is filled with spare ribs. Explanation: There is an infinity of things we cannot prove -- the moon being filled with spare ribs is one of them. Now you might expect that any “reasonable” person would know that the moon can’t be filled with spare ribs, but you would be expecting too much. People make wild claims, and get away with them, simply on the fact that the converse cannot otherwise be proven. Example #2: To this very day (at the time of this writing), science has been unable to create life from non-life; therefore, life must be a result of divine intervention. Explanation: Ignoring the false dilemma, the fact that we have not found a way to create life from non-life is not evidence that there is no way to create life from non-life, nor is it evidence that we will some day be able to; it is just evidence that we do not know how to do it. Confusing ignorance with impossibility (or possibility) is fallacious. |
Tags: fallacies
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