| Fallacy | certainty effect |
|---|---|
| Definition and Examples | When an outcome is certain and it becomes less probable, this has a greater impact than when the outcome was merely probable before the probability was reduced by the same amount. Thus 100% - 10% = 90% has more psychological impact than 50% - 10% = 40%. Overall, this works because of our preference for absolutes and our inability to really understand the meaning of the difference between different probabilities. To most people, 70%, 80% and 90% all mean the same: not certain, but fairly likely. Thus we would rather eliminate risk rather than reduce it. Humans prefer certainty over uncertainty |
Tags: fallacies
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